Papamoka Straight Talk

Custom Search

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Census Shift in Political Power

Some of the folks on the right side of the political aisle might be chuckling over the political shift of lost seats from the Northeast to the south and west of the nation but it is actually a double edged sword. Census results for 2010 have turned what was up and what was down upside down. Ergo the house of representatives is all in a tizzy over lost or won seats in red and blue states.

WASHINGTON — The Census Bureau rearranged the country’s political map on Tuesday, giving more Congressional seats to the South and the West, and taking away from the Northeast and the Midwest, in largely anticipated changes that will have far reaching implications for political life cycles over the next decade. – New York Times

Speaking as someone from the left side of the political spectrum, I look at this whole situation as a win for new political blood in states where there was nothing but desert before. It is all just a matter of perspective as to how the nation is just a bunch of migrant Americans that just happen to love warmer weather. Most of the movers are retired voting Democratic voters moving into warmer climates where they will vote. DNC operatives know this and now it is clear that some of those red states in the warm climates have an influx of blue state voters that just might want to be heard.

Time for the people that know how to actually run a political campaign and influence voters to start spending some time in states they thought were a “gimmee” to Republicans. There be Democats’ in them there states now!

Look at little old me for instance, once a New England die hard liberal now living in the land of the “Show Me” state of Missouri. Am I going to vote Republican just because my MA turned into MO on my return address labels? Hell no!

Papamoka

Labels: 2010 Census, blue state, Democrats, DNC, House of Representatives, Politics, Red State, Republicans, RNC

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania Swing to Obama

The latest polls are coming out and it looks like Obama is surpassing McCain in three key states. Quinnipiac University on October 1st is showing Obama with an 8 point lead over McCain in Florida and Ohio, in Pennsylvania Obama has a 15 point lead over McCain. Good news for Obama supporters, even worse news for Sarah Palin pre debate on Thursday night against Joe Biden. No pressure Governor Palin, no pressure.

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday. - Quinnipac University Polls

After crunching some numbers it is not looking good for McCain to win without two of these key states and maybe even all three given the facts that many previous Bush won states are now in the Obama leaning column as probable wins.

Today (10/1/08) I looked at the RCP Electoral map page and clicked on the No Toss Up States option and it ends up a landslide if the election were held today in favor of Obama 348 - 190. Even changing some states back to McCain is not helping his campaign out. Giving McCain back Ohio and Pennsylvania still comes down in favor of Obama 307-231. Let’s go further and give McCain back North Carolina and Michigan and the results are still in favor of Obama 275-263.

In some reports you read they blame Palin for the lack of an upward movement in the polls for McCain but I think there is more to this. Especially, with the latest bailout plan about to pass to benefit Wall Street. Financially, older investors that once considered the banking industry one of the safest places to invest have now been hit in their own retirement investments. Once again the old saying that people will vote their wallets comes into play and when you are on a fixed income and you see a large drop in your investments it makes a difference when you vote.

Then you have to consider that John McCain was George Bush’s water boy to privatize Social Security by moving the funds from a secured source in the Treasury to Wall Street and the double whammy effect comes into play.

Then you have to think about the millions of people that the Obama campaign and other Democrat based organizations now have registered to vote and the effects against a McCain win become evident state by state.

Papamoka

Thanks to Memeorandum for the tip...

Other folks talking about this issue...

Gun Toting Liberal (My bro)

Daily Kos

Talk Left

The Moderate Voice

Newsday Spin Cycle

*****Reuters has picked up this post... Thank you!

Labels: blue state, Democrat, Electoral College, John McCain, Obama, Polls, Presidential Election, Quinnipiac University, Red State, Republican

Friday, July 11, 2008

Ut Oh for Republican Senators in November

Many of the polls running are showing the Republican Party in the Senate is in deep trouble and may not be able to hold onto many seats this next election. One of the things leading this mass exodus of Republican voters is the plain old simple truth. Many of the Republican Senators on committees that backed President Bush are caught with the lies that Bush sold them on their records. Records are funny little things like that. There is no Teflon in record keeping and all the nasty facts and devious weaving of the truth simply sticks to the public servant owner.

Top GOPer Concedes That Party Has No Safe Senate Seats
By Eric Kleefeld - July 11, 2008, 3:52PM

Here's yet another sign of just how abysmal the map is for Senate Republicans this year: They are openly saying there are exactly zero safe seats this year -- not even Kansas, a red state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. - TPM Election Central

I’m not one to be politically illiterate, yes, some Republican Senators from red states may loose their seat for blindly carrying President Bush’s water but I tend to think that most will be back to serve again due to the “Incumbent” factor. That is the facts of life and unless these red state Senators really screwed up they will be back if a Democrat opponent can not sell the truth to the red state voters.

Bigger changes are coming to America and true leaders are needed. Some suck at the job in the Senate and get re-elected simply because of name recognition. President Bush didn’t get this nation into the mess it is in alone, he had help from many Senators on many committees. Our job as American voters is to stop the lies and overcome the enigma of election cycles by simply pointing to the truth and repeating it loud and clear for all to hear and see. Pretty simple when you really think about it. Voting out the liars should be an open and shut case.

Papamoka

Technorati Tags:
Republican Senate Races, Democrat Senate Elections, Red State, Blue State, Election Cycles, Bush Lies, Obama, Politics, Senate Seats, Eric Kleefeld

Labels: blue state, Bush Lies, Democrat Senate Elections, Election Cycles, Eric Kleefeld, Obama, Politics, Red State, Republican Senate Races, Senate Seats

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Electoral Vote Strategy

When it comes to Presidential politics at this point in the game then there is no better web site to grasp all fifty states political leaning be it Democrat or Republican than the one I am about to suggest. Electoral-vote.com is a political junkies mega fix of political polls and I caution you, the maps can cause an accidental overdose. I’ll be posting a permanent link at the top of the sidebar for folks to click on daily. Does that make me a political junkies drug dealer?

As of today, with the latest of polls that are updated often for each of the states, Obama has a significant lead over McCain. And yet, Obama still needs a strategy to make sure he and his political party take the White House in November. My thoughts are that Obama needs to pull Florida or Texas away from McCain to lock up the race. Other battleground states such as Virginia, Pennsyvania, Ohio, Indiana, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina are all in play for Obama or McCain so I’m sorry to report to most folks in those states that the television commercials running up to November will all be political advertisements from both camp’s.

Given the size of support Hillary Clinton had in Texas I honestly believe that with a ton of hard work from both of the Clinton’s and from Obama then the state of Texas can be turned blue. Turn out’s for both Democrat candidates in the primaries was very high and my thoughts are that the polls are not getting the full pulse of the states political leaning.

As for Florida, the whole Kathryn Harris deal along with George Bush inept policies of the last seven and a half years has hurt Florida even though Jeb Bush was their Governor. My thoughts on Florida is that many of the states political leaning is from people that have moved from New England states and of course the Great Lakes and New York, New Jersey area. Left leaning by majority and as true Floridians like to call them, Snow Flakes. Getting out the “Snow Flake” vote will be crucial for the Obama campaign as well as standing strong on Social Security benefits for the many retirees in the state.

When it comes right down to it Obama and McCain will be fighting for the Independent votes in all fifty states and as time passes they will both move toward the middle. The winner of the states with a narrow polling margin will be the one candidate that can articulate their passion for America best and in my eyes they both have lots of work ahead of them.

Papamoka

Technorati Tags:
Obama, McCain, Electoral College Map, Electoral Vote, State by State polling, polls, Presidential Race, Democrat Win, Republican Win, Political Maps, Vote polling, Red State, Blue State, Latest Polls, White House Race, Favored Candidate, Race for President, Political Junkie maps, Political Junkie, Analysis of Election, Election polling numbers, Rassmussen Polls, Barack Obama, John McCain

Labels: blue state, Democrat Win, Electoral College Map, Electoral Vote, McCain, Obama, Political Maps, Polls, Presidential Race, Red State, Republican Win, State by State polling, Vote polling

Sunday, January 06, 2008

NO More Red State or Blue State

Following the election after Iowa is enlightening and educational to this Biden junkie. As much as I loved Joe Biden for President I am finding the Obama camp more to my liking without Joe in the race for President. Obama’s approach to the election is not about a divided America but a United America with a common purpose. Serving all Americans and what they need first.

There is no red state or blue state or division in his speeches and he reaches out in unity for all. That principal is something that people from all walks of life can vote for and believe in that Barack Obama and his message of change is what we need as a nation. From over at Liberal Values, Ron Chusid has this great video and read on Barack Obama’s victory in Iowa…

With about 98% of the vote in from the Iowa caucus, I project Barack Obama will be elected the next President of the United States.

Sure, a lot can still happen between now and November, but baring a major change it is difficult to see any other result. Edwards’ populism won’t sell in many states outside of Iowa, and having lost her aura of inevitability, support for Clinton is likely to hemorrhage. Dodd and Biden both withdrew, and Richardson performed too poorly to be a serious candidate. As for the general election, the record turnout of 227,000 in a state that went for George Bush is just one sign of the advantage the Democrats have. Some questioned the model used by The Des Moines Register that estimated 200,000 attendees but this number was greatly surpassed. By comparison, the turnout in 2004 was 125,000.

Not only did Obama win the caucus, he “won” in the post-caucus speeches. Clinton’s speech sounded like a speech of the Democratic Party past. John Edwards’ speech was the Dean scream put to words, showing yet again Edwards would never be elected president. Barack Obama gave the speech which would be expected not only by the leader of the Democratic Party, but by the president of all the people of the United States. The Republicans might be able to beat Hillary Clinton. I believe they would have beaten John Edwards. They will have a hard time beating Barack Obama. - Liberal Values

In America we need to stand up for ourselves and vote for change simply because the Congress will not act if we do not send our elected candidates to speak for us. This is a time for great change in our nation and the only way it will happen is by voting for change.

President Bush and his crew of political thugs have convinced the American people that there are two sides to every issue and if you are on the opposing opinion then you are anti-American. With us or against us mentality works in the school yard but not in the world we adults have to leave as a legacy to our children or grand children. Living under the cloak of perpetual Republican fear because the toughest kid on the block should never talk to the political leaders of other nations because they do not agree with us is isolationist and the fast track for our nations failure.

When the folks on the right side of the aisle talk about making your life just a little bit better they are talking about the top three to five percent of income earners. When Barack Obama talks about making your lives a little better he is talking to you and I that are struggling just to pay the mortgage or the rent and fill the gas tank of the family car. He is talking about the future and ending the tyranny of oil, the energy crisis that is crippling Americans at the pump or the oil heating tank in not just your home but your business. He is talking about change and change only comes from listening to inventors and people with innovative ideas that will cripple the domination and strangle hold that the oil industry and markets hold over Americans every single day. From that perspective, his love for our country and all of our people is genuine and unquestionable.

As for those that would question his patriotism or desire to end the war in Iraq he has a time line. Iraq is free, Iraq will have sixteen months to get its own house in order and our troops will be out. Much like Ronald Reagan let the Iranians know that he would not tolerate hostage takers as President, the result was freed hostages during his inauguration.

One thing is sure as we all live here in America and go about our lives is that the state of our nation is in trouble. The perception of America is no longer the defender of freedom. We are supposedly the police of the world and we can not be that for all nations. We as a nation need to put the Teddy Roosevelt big stick down and listen to the people of the world that used to be our friends. Selling fear is easy, selling the answers to overcome that fear is someone you need to listen to. We are not the ugly Americans but that is the perception around the world of our nation and of you. Can we change that? I don’t think we have a choice.

America is not just about Americans. We are the beacon of light to the world and many times we might get it wrong on world politics but we have the innate ability to prove that change is possible. When our nation is right, then we can all do amazing things for the world. When we are wrong and our President has a twenty eight percent popularity rating then we can and will initiate change by voting accordingly. We are not red states or blue states, we are Americans. If we want our government back then we need to stand up for change. It is that easy and that simple and Barack Obama is right!

Papamoka

Cross posted at Bring IT ON!

Feel free to link to or steal this post...