Barack Obama is the Next President

This is a day to remember and a true feel for what the American experiment is all about. Barack Obama defeated John McCain by a rather significant margin pulling down states that were formerly confirmed red state Republican strong holds. And he earned every single vote the hard way by facing his critics and simply telling the truth on who he is and who he will be as our next President of the United States of America.

Key states for Obama were PA, OH, IA, NM, MI, NH and FL which more or less sank the dream of a Presidency for Senatator John McCain. Keith Olbermann of MSNBC called it for Obama by an electoral vote tally at about 9:37 EST. Going by electoral votes at the time of the prediction it was impossible for Senator McCain to win. Thus, Barack Obama will take the oath of office for President in January of 2009.

Senator Obama won this election by taking the high road when his opponent chose the lowest road that was easiest to travel. Obama impressed the people of America not only with his eloquence but his ability to make his attackers look foolish as they used arguments against him that they too were guilty of. Senator Obama or should I say President Elect Obama, didn’t have to morph into someone that his political base and moderate or independent voters could vote for.


All that being said, it should be interesting to see how President Obama’s cabinet will be made up as pro and con from his position on many of the issues. Then it is time to get real change passed and delivered to the American people. President Obama will have to work twice as hard as anyone else that has sat behind the desk in the Oval Office simply because he promised he would do so much for so many. In that respect, political pundits and bloggers like yours truly will not be giving him a free pass because we pushed so hard for him to be President. Barack Obama earned the opportunity to be President, now he has to prove that he can get the job done.

Get to work President Elect Obama and don’t forget the little people that made this possible for you. Like all of us hard working unemployed bloggers! I’m willing to accept a good paying job in your administration or something small like Rhode Island for the calluses my typing fingers all have. Anyone have a bandaide they can spare?

Thank you God that this election is finally over!



UPDATE: 11:00 PM EST NBC Declared Obama the winner and the next President of the United States of America!

Papamoka

Cross posted at Bring it On! and To the Center


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McCain Dream Electoral College Results

Everyone is on the edge of their seats waiting for election results tonight and some of the news networks are already planning on calling the winner as early as 7:00 PM EST. I’m of the firm opinion that they should hold off declaring a winner for President to allow people west of the Mississippi river to vote. We can wait and I see no problem with waiting till 7:15 PM EST!

Getting past that, there are some reports out that McCain is winning in a landslide. I had to do some intense research to get to the bottom of this viscious rumor.The only problem with these reports is that the map results they show are from November of 2006. Dream on Senator McCain, dream on!

Papamoka

McCain Electoral Vote Miracle

I’ve said it here before that I don’t trust the polling numbers in this election and again I must site the upsets in the primaries. State by state the polls said one thing and the actual election results were the opposite time and time again. That being said, I do however trust Real Clear Politics (RCP) with their polling average numbers. They take all of the recent polls from all sources and average them all together state by state.

As of 10/31/2008 the electoral map with no toss up states shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 353 to 185. That works out to 48% more electoral votes that John McCain needs to make up by November 4th to win the Presidency. If this were a poker game, I would encourage Senator McCain to fold his hand but I don’t see him doing that. So what does John McCain need to win to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes? I’ll tell ya…

Using the RCP electoral map with no ties we have 353 votes for Obama and 185 for McCain. Below is a list of states that McCain would need to take just by one fraction of a percent over Barack Obama to win. Mind you, all of these states have Obama winning by 2.6% or more as of today. Below is the state and the percentage that Obama is polled at to win. John McCain has to pull this royal flush out or it is the end of the game. He needs to hold the lead he has in all other states according to the polling numbers…

State, Electoral Votes, Current Lead
OH 20 5.8% Obama
FL 27 3.5% Obama
NC 15 2.6% Obama
NH 4 12.3% Obama
NV 5 7.0% Obama
CO 9 6.5% Obama
NM 5 7.3% Obama

Source: Real Clear Politics

One of the real concerns for John McCain is carrying states he barely has a hold of. Along with the above states swinging in favor of John McCain from Barack Obama he needs to hold the following states as well:

MO 11 0.4% McCain
IN 11 1.7% McCain
MT 3 2.0% McCain

Just my random thoughts on the numbers but all that the Obama campaign needs to do is take any single one of these states listed above and he becomes the next President. Statistically, Barack Obama can do that very easily by taking NH that is already showing a 12.3% favorability. John McCain needs a miracle in my honest opinion.

Papamoka

Obama Double Digit Poll Leads

Battleground states are falling heavily for Barack Obama and by double digit leads according to MSNBC today. I believe these numbers are coming from the University of Wisconsin poll and this is what they show. Obama is ahead of McCain in Minnesota 19%, Wisconsin 13%, Michigan 22%, Iowa 13%, Illinois 29%, Indiana 10%, Ohio 12 % and Pennsylvania by 11%.

Video Link



Just for giggles I went over to Real Clear Politics and plugged this information into the Electoral Map. I love this feature and find myself using it at least a couple of days a week. Mind you the map starts out with Obama at 259 and McCain at 157 solid electoral college votes, leaning states move the map to 306 to 157 in Obama’s favor. That leaves 75 electoral college votes in toss up mode.

If you change all the states leaning to Obama or McCain and then plug in MN, WI, MI, IA, IL, IN, OH, PA all over to Obama and give John McCain all the toss up states (MT, ND, NV, MO, NC, FL) you end up with Obama winning 317 to 221.

If you look at the maps from another perspective and click on the “No Toss Ups” option, McCain would need to win OH, PA, IN, VA, NC, and FL to get to 270 to win the Presidency.

Papamoka

Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania Swing to Obama

The latest polls are coming out and it looks like Obama is surpassing McCain in three key states. Quinnipiac University on October 1st is showing Obama with an 8 point lead over McCain in Florida and Ohio, in Pennsylvania Obama has a 15 point lead over McCain. Good news for Obama supporters, even worse news for Sarah Palin pre debate on Thursday night against Joe Biden. No pressure Governor Palin, no pressure.

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday. - Quinnipac University Polls

After crunching some numbers it is not looking good for McCain to win without two of these key states and maybe even all three given the facts that many previous Bush won states are now in the Obama leaning column as probable wins.

Today (10/1/08) I looked at the RCP Electoral map page and clicked on the No Toss Up States option and it ends up a landslide if the election were held today in favor of Obama 348 - 190. Even changing some states back to McCain is not helping his campaign out. Giving McCain back Ohio and Pennsylvania still comes down in favor of Obama 307-231. Let’s go further and give McCain back North Carolina and Michigan and the results are still in favor of Obama 275-263.

In some reports you read they blame Palin for the lack of an upward movement in the polls for McCain but I think there is more to this. Especially, with the latest bailout plan about to pass to benefit Wall Street. Financially, older investors that once considered the banking industry one of the safest places to invest have now been hit in their own retirement investments. Once again the old saying that people will vote their wallets comes into play and when you are on a fixed income and you see a large drop in your investments it makes a difference when you vote.

Then you have to consider that John McCain was George Bush’s water boy to privatize Social Security by moving the funds from a secured source in the Treasury to Wall Street and the double whammy effect comes into play.

Then you have to think about the millions of people that the Obama campaign and other Democrat based organizations now have registered to vote and the effects against a McCain win become evident state by state.

Papamoka

Thanks to Memeorandum for the tip...

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