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Sunday, October 05, 2008

Electoral Map Analysis

Chuck Todd over at MSNBC has the greatest little toys for mapping out where the electoral votes stand in the race for President. Don't get me wrong, I miss Tim Russert and his chalk board analysis. Chuck just has the Blacberry and Ipod crowd enthralled. I just think it's neat!

Video Link



Needless to say, I think Senator McCain is in some serious trouble. Hold on, my Ishoe is ringing. I have to go, agent 99 is in trouble again...

Papamoka

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Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Obama McCain Toss Up States

When it comes to the Presidential election this year, many states are still in play and the battleground for McCain and Obama is very diverse from previous elections. States that went for Kerry or Bush are no longer locks by any political party this year.

One of the things that I am very glad to see is that the tough race that Hillary Clinton ran in the primaries has reinvigorated woman in America to participate in this election process. In the process of picking Vice Presidential candidates I was very surprised that Barack Obama did not actually pick Hillary Clinton as Vice President but that is history now. Joe Biden brings another spectrum to the Democrat ticket that expands the political theology of what it means to be a true American servant to the people. The big surprise in this election process was the coasting in during the primaries, John McCain, picking Sarah Palin the Governor of Alaska, a virtual unknown and unlikely pick for Vice President.

Personally, I honestly think McCain picked her simply because she was a woman and he hoped that her unknown status on the national stage would follow through in her run for Vice President. That didn’t hold up and Governor Palin comes with some luggage that I honestly don’t think McCain had the chance to consider or vetted in his pandering to woman voters. Make no mistake about it, the Maverick picked her because she alone could stir up the main stream media and draw attention not back to him but the Republican Party! As his campaign manager has said, this election is no longer about the issues! Something nobody speaking at the RNC convention went into any detail on, including John McCain the actual candidate for President from the Republican Party?

My thoughts are that many of the states once firmly in the Red zone are up for grabs and the Obama and McCain campaigns will have to fight hard to take or keep these states. According Real Clear Politics Polls Obama is making progress in achieving a win come November in many of these toss up states.

Florida is one state with 27 Electoral votes up for grabs according to the RCP Polls. Since March of this year to September, Obama has climbed up to a tie status with McCain which is almost a ten point jump. Just a reminder, Obama was not allowed to campaign in the primaries in Florida because of DNC rules at the time that prohibited campaigning due to Florida moving up its primary vote date. Florida is wide open and ripe for an Obama, Hillary, and Bill Clinton speech tour.

Virginia is next on the list that went for George Bush by 8+ points in the last two elections and is now a dead heat between Obama and McCain with 13 electoral votes in play. I’m giving some of that credit to Virginians not being anyone’s fool. Folks in Virginia know when the politics in America is screwed up and they elected Jim Webb as a U.S. Senator to counter the current administration claims as being a monarchy. There once was a king that pissed off one Virginian so much that he ended up leading a Revolutionary Army to victory just a couple of hundred years ago. Now that was Virginian with the true American spirit. I think they named a city after him or a state, his name escapes me right now…


"As the first of every thing, in our situation will serve to establish a Precedent," he wrote James Madison, "it is devoutly wished on my part, that these precedents may be fixed on true principles." - George Washington

Nevada with 5 electoral votes comes up next with its never ending and growing economy that Bush won in the past two elections by just a few percentage points. One of the reasons that Nevada is growing so fast and furious in the influx of people moving into the state. The construction industry is booming and the tourist industry is off the charts. Everyone from everywhere else is moving into Nevada and that is changing the once prominent red state into a possible blue state. Immigration of Americans to Nevada is coming from the Northeast, blue states, Northwest, blue states, and the central states surrounding the Great Lakes, also blue states. Obama and McCain are 1% apart in the polls as of the time this post is being written.

New Mexico is up on the radar by a slim win by Bush in the last election but has one hell of a Governor in Bill Richardson. Ronald Reagan used trickle down politics like Bill Richardson uses trickle down philosophy in state government to help his residents in New Mexico. New Mexico residents are blessed to have Richardson as a Governor in so many ways that it isn’t even funny. I think they know it and will trust their Governor to vote blue rather than red come this presidential election.

Ohio is the battleground state to win with 20 electoral votes that went for Bush in the last election. Do the people of Ohio really think that John McCain is going to make their lives any better? I think they will see through the smoke and mirror politics of McCain and his selection for Vice President as just another clone of George Bush. Keeping tax cuts for the top 5% of income earners is more important than offering tax relief to 95% of Americans who make less than $250,000 per year. Trickle down politics is McCain, the rich keep more of what they already have to much of and you keep less?

Last thought on this rant, America is in need of change, the last eight years have proven that our leaders do not have any faith in us by the many lies they have told that were later exposed. If you want four more years of lies, misdirection, avoidance of the truth, deaths of our sons and daughters in made up reasons to go to war then by all means vote your conscience.

When you really think about it, America was born of people that had to have change to survive. They fought and died for that change that gives us all the rights that we enjoy today. America will not survive this phase of the experiment in freedom if the oppression our people face is born from within our halls of government.

Papamoka

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Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Electoral Vote Strategy

Click for www.electoral-vote.com

When it comes to Presidential politics at this point in the game then there is no better web site to grasp all fifty states political leaning be it Democrat or Republican than the one I am about to suggest. Electoral-vote.com is a political junkies mega fix of political polls and I caution you, the maps can cause an accidental overdose. I’ll be posting a permanent link at the top of the sidebar for folks to click on daily. Does that make me a political junkies drug dealer?

As of today, with the latest of polls that are updated often for each of the states, Obama has a significant lead over McCain. And yet, Obama still needs a strategy to make sure he and his political party take the White House in November. My thoughts are that Obama needs to pull Florida or Texas away from McCain to lock up the race. Other battleground states such as Virginia, Pennsyvania, Ohio, Indiana, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada and North Carolina are all in play for Obama or McCain so I’m sorry to report to most folks in those states that the television commercials running up to November will all be political advertisements from both camp’s.

Given the size of support Hillary Clinton had in Texas I honestly believe that with a ton of hard work from both of the Clinton’s and from Obama then the state of Texas can be turned blue. Turn out’s for both Democrat candidates in the primaries was very high and my thoughts are that the polls are not getting the full pulse of the states political leaning.

As for Florida, the whole Kathryn Harris deal along with George Bush inept policies of the last seven and a half years has hurt Florida even though Jeb Bush was their Governor. My thoughts on Florida is that many of the states political leaning is from people that have moved from New England states and of course the Great Lakes and New York, New Jersey area. Left leaning by majority and as true Floridians like to call them, Snow Flakes. Getting out the “Snow Flake” vote will be crucial for the Obama campaign as well as standing strong on Social Security benefits for the many retirees in the state.

When it comes right down to it Obama and McCain will be fighting for the Independent votes in all fifty states and as time passes they will both move toward the middle. The winner of the states with a narrow polling margin will be the one candidate that can articulate their passion for America best and in my eyes they both have lots of work ahead of them.

Papamoka

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