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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania Swing to Obama

The latest polls are coming out and it looks like Obama is surpassing McCain in three key states. Quinnipiac University on October 1st is showing Obama with an 8 point lead over McCain in Florida and Ohio, in Pennsylvania Obama has a 15 point lead over McCain. Good news for Obama supporters, even worse news for Sarah Palin pre debate on Thursday night against Joe Biden. No pressure Governor Palin, no pressure.

FLORIDA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 - McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 - McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 - McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 - McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 - McCain 39 post-debate Friday's presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
- Quinnipac University Polls

After crunching some numbers it is not looking good for McCain to win without two of these key states and maybe even all three given the facts that many previous Bush won states are now in the Obama leaning column as probable wins.

Today (10/1/08) I looked at the RCP Electoral map page and clicked on the No Toss Up States option and it ends up a landslide if the election were held today in favor of Obama 348 - 190. Even changing some states back to McCain is not helping his campaign out. Giving McCain back Ohio and Pennsylvania still comes down in favor of Obama 307-231. Let’s go further and give McCain back North Carolina and Michigan and the results are still in favor of Obama 275-263.

In some reports you read they blame Palin for the lack of an upward movement in the polls for McCain but I think there is more to this. Especially, with the latest bailout plan about to pass to benefit Wall Street. Financially, older investors that once considered the banking industry one of the safest places to invest have now been hit in their own retirement investments. Once again the old saying that people will vote their wallets comes into play and when you are on a fixed income and you see a large drop in your investments it makes a difference when you vote.

Then you have to consider that John McCain was George Bush’s water boy to privatize Social Security by moving the funds from a secured source in the Treasury to Wall Street and the double whammy effect comes into play.

Then you have to think about the millions of people that the Obama campaign and other Democrat based organizations now have registered to vote and the effects against a McCain win become evident state by state.

Thanks to Memeorandum for the tip...
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*****Reuters has picked up this post... Thank you!

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