McCain Electoral Vote Miracle

I’ve said it here before that I don’t trust the polling numbers in this election and again I must site the upsets in the primaries. State by state the polls said one thing and the actual election results were the opposite time and time again. That being said, I do however trust Real Clear Politics (RCP) with their polling average numbers. They take all of the recent polls from all sources and average them all together state by state.

As of 10/31/2008 the electoral map with no toss up states shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 353 to 185. That works out to 48% more electoral votes that John McCain needs to make up by November 4th to win the Presidency. If this were a poker game, I would encourage Senator McCain to fold his hand but I don’t see him doing that. So what does John McCain need to win to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes? I’ll tell ya…

Using the RCP electoral map with no ties we have 353 votes for Obama and 185 for McCain. Below is a list of states that McCain would need to take just by one fraction of a percent over Barack Obama to win. Mind you, all of these states have Obama winning by 2.6% or more as of today. Below is the state and the percentage that Obama is polled at to win. John McCain has to pull this royal flush out or it is the end of the game. He needs to hold the lead he has in all other states according to the polling numbers…

State, Electoral Votes, Current Lead
OH 20 5.8% Obama
FL 27 3.5% Obama
NC 15 2.6% Obama
NH 4 12.3% Obama
NV 5 7.0% Obama
CO 9 6.5% Obama
NM 5 7.3% Obama

Source: Real Clear Politics

One of the real concerns for John McCain is carrying states he barely has a hold of. Along with the above states swinging in favor of John McCain from Barack Obama he needs to hold the following states as well:

MO 11 0.4% McCain
IN 11 1.7% McCain
MT 3 2.0% McCain

Just my random thoughts on the numbers but all that the Obama campaign needs to do is take any single one of these states listed above and he becomes the next President. Statistically, Barack Obama can do that very easily by taking NH that is already showing a 12.3% favorability. John McCain needs a miracle in my honest opinion.

Papamoka

Obama Double Digit Poll Leads

Battleground states are falling heavily for Barack Obama and by double digit leads according to MSNBC today. I believe these numbers are coming from the University of Wisconsin poll and this is what they show. Obama is ahead of McCain in Minnesota 19%, Wisconsin 13%, Michigan 22%, Iowa 13%, Illinois 29%, Indiana 10%, Ohio 12 % and Pennsylvania by 11%.

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Just for giggles I went over to Real Clear Politics and plugged this information into the Electoral Map. I love this feature and find myself using it at least a couple of days a week. Mind you the map starts out with Obama at 259 and McCain at 157 solid electoral college votes, leaning states move the map to 306 to 157 in Obama’s favor. That leaves 75 electoral college votes in toss up mode.

If you change all the states leaning to Obama or McCain and then plug in MN, WI, MI, IA, IL, IN, OH, PA all over to Obama and give John McCain all the toss up states (MT, ND, NV, MO, NC, FL) you end up with Obama winning 317 to 221.

If you look at the maps from another perspective and click on the “No Toss Ups” option, McCain would need to win OH, PA, IN, VA, NC, and FL to get to 270 to win the Presidency.

Papamoka

More Red States Going Blue

Not that it is a huge shock to most people but many former Red States are turning Blue in surprising numbers. Mind you, many conservative and independent voters hold a majority in these states but the polling numbers are refreshing when it comes to change in America. Whether they like Obama or not, they know that McCain is more of the same if not poison to the world they live in. Anyone at this point would be better than John McCain who has become George Bush’s clone.

Since the last Presidential election North Dakota is leaning towards Obama, Missouri is leaning towards Obama, West Virginian and Virginia is leaning towards Obama, Florida is going for Obama, Ohio is beginning to go Obama, Colorado and New Mexico are tilting toward Obama. Last but not least, North Carolina and Indiana are a toss up. And Obama is still holding all the states that John Kerry carried in the 2004 Presidential election.

Then you get states that should be a lock for McCain but are not and the race for President goes into a super blow out. States like Georgia, Mississippi and Montana that are within reach of an Obama win given the McCain campaign meltdown.

Source: ElectoralVote.com

Papamoka

Obama Wins According to McClatchy?

I’m not one to call a political race over and done with before the actual election happens but the McCain implosion, the Republican self destruction in ethics leads some merit to one political pundit calling the next election for President a landslide. As voters we can not forget the fall out of Denise Hastert, the Republican Speaker of the House over the Mark Foley alleged sex with congressional teen age pages and unbecoming acts and allegations incident and subsequent cover up. He left office in disgrace.

We as voters can not forget the allegations against the Senate Leader Tom Delay with rigging Congressional election jurisdictions to favor his political party in Texas or his numerous dealings with many lobbyist in the capitol. He left office in disgrace. I could go on and on from W to Karl Rove, Jack Abamoff, Scooter Libby and the list just grows. Corruption, greed, more for me, screwing over the American people was a mantra for the first six years of the Bush administration. Over at McClatchy they have this to say on what they think the election will result…

Daring to utter the 'L' word: Obama on track to a landslide
By Steven Thomma McClatchy Newspapers

WASHINGTON — Barring a dramatic change in the political landscape over the next three weeks, Democrats appear headed toward a decisive victory on Election Day that would give them broad power over the federal government.

The victory would send Barack Obama to the White House and give him larger Democratic majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate — and perhaps a filibuster-proof margin there.

That could mark a historic realignment of the country's politics on a scale with 1932 or 1980, when the out party was given power it held for a generation, and used it to transform government's role in American society.

Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator from Illinois, is now well positioned to win the Electoral College. He's comfortably holding most of the "blue" states that went for Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry in past elections, polls show, and he's gaining momentum to take away several "red" states that have voted Republican in recent elections, including Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia.

The Democrats are also widely expected to take big gains in House and Senate races. Like Obama, they're reaching deep into once solid Republican territory. Even such stalwarts as North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole and Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, could be in jeopardy. - McClatchy

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Given all of the corruption over the last eight years we have to realistically look at whom we elect to not just the Presidency but to the Congress and the Senate. I’m by no means a Conservative but you have to admit that many events over the last eight years have been everything but conservative in nature. The budget is more than busted, money is flowing out from the treasury faster than it comes in and the world financial markets are collapsing. From no bid contracts for the former firm that Dick Cheney was the CEO of to the amazing run up of oil prices from a President that was once an oil executive. There was no avenue of revenue they could not rape and have taxpayers pick up the bill. This has been one of the greatest grab and run Congress and Presidency in our nations history and it wasn’t Democrats that fed the fire and voted for it.

When you as a moderate or independent voter see the stories and videos about the anger coming from the McCain campaign then you see why this nation is so screwed up today. Ideology is only good if it serves them alone. To hell with you, get a job, you are a Communist, a Socialist, and you are not an American is what they scream at Obama supporters. You my friend, you are a terrorist too because you don’t tow the die hard party base of the Republican Party line. That includes your sons and daughters in service to this nation in one of the most powerful military organizations in the world. And yet we in the middle are the problem with what is going wrong in this nation?

All you troops in service to America with Democrat or Independent voter parents to the back of the bus! Hut two, three, four!

It’s time to take our nation back and let it be run by “We the People”. Yes we can is not just a Barack Obama campaign slogan but an American call to action to take back our government and end the madness that has us all in this crisis that is our country. Terrorist’s may have attacked us on 9/11 but greed has been attacking our sovereignty as a people from that day forward.

Papamoka