McCain Electoral Vote Miracle

I’ve said it here before that I don’t trust the polling numbers in this election and again I must site the upsets in the primaries. State by state the polls said one thing and the actual election results were the opposite time and time again. That being said, I do however trust Real Clear Politics (RCP) with their polling average numbers. They take all of the recent polls from all sources and average them all together state by state.

As of 10/31/2008 the electoral map with no toss up states shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 353 to 185. That works out to 48% more electoral votes that John McCain needs to make up by November 4th to win the Presidency. If this were a poker game, I would encourage Senator McCain to fold his hand but I don’t see him doing that. So what does John McCain need to win to get to the magic number of 270 electoral votes? I’ll tell ya…

Using the RCP electoral map with no ties we have 353 votes for Obama and 185 for McCain. Below is a list of states that McCain would need to take just by one fraction of a percent over Barack Obama to win. Mind you, all of these states have Obama winning by 2.6% or more as of today. Below is the state and the percentage that Obama is polled at to win. John McCain has to pull this royal flush out or it is the end of the game. He needs to hold the lead he has in all other states according to the polling numbers…

State, Electoral Votes, Current Lead
OH 20 5.8% Obama
FL 27 3.5% Obama
NC 15 2.6% Obama
NH 4 12.3% Obama
NV 5 7.0% Obama
CO 9 6.5% Obama
NM 5 7.3% Obama

Source: Real Clear Politics

One of the real concerns for John McCain is carrying states he barely has a hold of. Along with the above states swinging in favor of John McCain from Barack Obama he needs to hold the following states as well:

MO 11 0.4% McCain
IN 11 1.7% McCain
MT 3 2.0% McCain

Just my random thoughts on the numbers but all that the Obama campaign needs to do is take any single one of these states listed above and he becomes the next President. Statistically, Barack Obama can do that very easily by taking NH that is already showing a 12.3% favorability. John McCain needs a miracle in my honest opinion.

Papamoka

Obama Double Digit Poll Leads

Battleground states are falling heavily for Barack Obama and by double digit leads according to MSNBC today. I believe these numbers are coming from the University of Wisconsin poll and this is what they show. Obama is ahead of McCain in Minnesota 19%, Wisconsin 13%, Michigan 22%, Iowa 13%, Illinois 29%, Indiana 10%, Ohio 12 % and Pennsylvania by 11%.

Video Link



Just for giggles I went over to Real Clear Politics and plugged this information into the Electoral Map. I love this feature and find myself using it at least a couple of days a week. Mind you the map starts out with Obama at 259 and McCain at 157 solid electoral college votes, leaning states move the map to 306 to 157 in Obama’s favor. That leaves 75 electoral college votes in toss up mode.

If you change all the states leaning to Obama or McCain and then plug in MN, WI, MI, IA, IL, IN, OH, PA all over to Obama and give John McCain all the toss up states (MT, ND, NV, MO, NC, FL) you end up with Obama winning 317 to 221.

If you look at the maps from another perspective and click on the “No Toss Ups” option, McCain would need to win OH, PA, IN, VA, NC, and FL to get to 270 to win the Presidency.

Papamoka