Chris Matthews to Hillary “Pack it up!”
Using Real Clear Politics delegate count page it isn’t hard to see where the numbers will end up in the Democrat Primary race. Hillary Clinton would have to beat Barack Obama 66% to 34% in every race from here to the end. In my figures I’m using all possible delegates including super delegates.
Chris Matthews has the opinion that this race is over for Hillary Clinton and the media is spinning it just to keep the action going. I’d have to agree with him that a 32 point trouncing in every race left against Obama is not going to happen.
Then again Obama could really screw up? Nope, that isn’t going to happen either.
Pack it up Hillary!
Papamoka
Posted in OpenLeft.com Diaries
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Labels: Delegate Count, Democrat Primary, Election results, election speculation, MSNBC, Open Left, Real Clear Politics, Super Delegates, voting by the numbers
posted by Papamoka at
6:23 AM
10 Comments:
Counting Michigan and Florida, even tallying most of Michigan's "undecided" vote to Obama, the popular-vote gap is now less than 100,000 out of 30 million. Neither Clinton nor Obama can get the nomination without superdelegates, and superdelegates can change their minds at any time based on factors such as viability in the general election. She's got as much right and reason to stick with it as he does.
Would you agree Infidel that she is shedding super delegates in previous states that she has won? In the same respect Obama is gaining super delegates.
I studied the RCP page and worked numbers up and down and all over and I don't see how she can pull it off without Obama majorly screwing up.
Either way we look at it, the only one winning in this race between Clinton and Obama is McCain. Looking at the number of Democrats verse the number of Republicans voting and new voters it does not look well for the Maverick.
Superdelegates aren't committed until they actually vote at the convention. If they decide that Clinton would do better against McCain than Obama would, or if Clinton has taken the lead in the popular vote by then, they are free to act on that.
Expecting Clinton to drop out only makes sense if the nomination is a foregone conclusion. It's not.
I'm 99% certain that Obama cannot win the general election (here's why, if you're interested). That's the main reason I want to see Clinton keep fighting -- so that she can either win the nomination or keep the contest even enough to justify the convention nominating an appealing compromise candidate, such as Gore. If she quits now, Obama will be nominated and McCain will be the next President. To me this is about beating the Republicans, not about any one politician's ambitions.
How can anyone think Hillary even has a remote chance at winning the General?
Why is the GOP actively campaigning against Obama and not Hillary?
The GOP is locked and loaded for Hillary. They want her to be the nominee. They will destroy her.
Basing an argument that the 'Wright' controversy makes Obama unelectable is absurd. The Straight Liar McCain has his own problems with Reverand Hagee and Parsley.
Not to mention the rightwing Christians singing 'Why Should God Bless Amemrica'.
Hillary has her own Pastor Problem. And if we are going to play guilt by association then we have to tie Wright to Bill Clinton too who invited Jeremiah Wright to his Prayer Breakfast during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Hillary has associations with Billy Graham who was caught on tape making anti-semetic remarks.
If we play Guilt By Association then we can rack up the Ed Rendell tape of him praising Farrakhan.
If we play Guild By Association then we discuss Bill Clinton pardoning members of the Weather Underground.
The only people the Wright controversy plays to are those who would not vote for Obama to begin with.
Reality is Republicans want to run against Hillary. They are not prepared to run against Obama which is why they are now focusing more attention on him while McCain and Hillary double team him.
The establishment would prefer Hillary or McCain to Obama for sure. That's part of the reason why this race is still going on.
Hillary can keep running. She can go all the way to the convention.
But that doesn't mean that just because she stays in the race or pushes for a brokered convention that she has to be the nominee.
The Super Delegates could decide tommorow to back Obama and push him close to 2024 thereby making him the presumptive nominee.
If Obama keeps getting Super Delegate support like he has over the past few months then it will be possible that he can get to 2024 before the convention.
If Obama wins 45% of the remaining contests, a low bar indeed, he would pick up an additional (give or take) 181 delegates putting him at 1901 meaning he would need to pick up 123 more super delegates.
On the other hand, lets say Hillary wins every remaining contest by 60%, a high bar indeed. That would get her
247 more delegates putting her at 1837 meaning she would need to pick up 187 more super delegates to get to 2024.
So the aruguement then becomes who should the Super Delegates pick? And if one's arguement is that the Super Delegates have to go with Hillary because of Wright then I raise you Bosnia, Columbia Free Trade, NAFTA, Iraq, and Iran.
In the end the Super delegates will decide. No one knows really how they will break. Hillary is trying to make the argument that they should break for her. But at the end of the day the Super Delegates are also going to look at which candidate is better for the party? Who is bringing out more new voters? Who is increasing Democratic membership? Who is raising more money? That answer is Obama.
Hi papmoka,
my previous comment was directed at infidel and not your post though I am sure you figured that out.
But I agree with Infidel in the sense that if we go all the way to the convention and its going to come down to superdelegate deals and getting pledged delegates to switch sides then we might as well pick another candidate like Gore or Edwards.
This notion that Hillary could take it all the way to a brokered convention, come out on top, and still be a viable candidate in the general I think is beyond ludicrous.
Got the idea of your thoughts Polishifter and thanks for stopping by my friend!
I would hate to see this go into a convention battle and backroom deal as well but it looks like Hill/Bill will settle for nothing less than that.
You had a great piece on this topic today by the way.
The Republicans are actively campaigning against Obama because, like pretty much everyone, they are assuming he'll be the nominee in the end. If Clinton starts looking more likely, that will shift.
McCain and Clinton were not members of the congregations of Hagee and Wright for 20 years; also, McCain repudiated Hagee's endorsement. Those associations aren't nearly as damaging in the eyes of the centrist swing voters in the swing states, who will decide the general election, in practice. Neither are the other issues you cite. (Bill Clinton's pardons might be, but he's not running for President.)
Either Democrat will have problems attracting the other's supporters in the general election. Every poll I've seen shows that Obama has more trouble winning Clinton's supporters than vice-versa.
If there's one thing that would de-legitimize a nominee, it's disregarding the votes of Florida and Michigan -- not to mention the fact that snubbing those states would be political suicide for the party.
I can't help but agree with you Infidel that McCain is gearing up but so too are Hill and Barack. That's just politics.
McCain has many more faults than the media is letting on and he does not have a grass roots bunch of voters that will talk it up for him. I disagree that Clinton voters and Obama voters will not vote for the winning candidate no matter whom it is. Democrat's are fed up and the pendulum against the Republican Party is swinging without care as to whom is wielding the blade. Look at the numbers of Democrats versus Republican voters.
I can see this race going down to the wire but it would make a hell of a lot more sense if the two Dem's were one voice against McCain now!
Catch the latest post with McCain telling us we are far better off now than four years ago! He's so out of touch.
By the way, nice website my friend. I really enjoyed several of your posts.
Greetings Papamoka! Hope you are well.
As a North Carolina voter, I'll keep saying this: I'd like to have an option in my primary - that's not selfish. That's wanting to participate in the democratic process, and that very participation is going to be more important now than in any other election year I can remember - precisely because this is such a tight race. Nobody would be telling Hillary to pack it up if Barack would just sew up the nomination; is that her fault? Yes, in a way it is, because she is a formidable, viable, hard-fighting candidate. You know, same reason this thing is too close to call yet, I don't care what anybody says.
I don't know who I'll vote for in my primary; I just know who won't get my vote in the general election no matter what. His initials are 'John McCain.'
Hey JW I'm doing well and how about you?
I think that alot of the frustration in this race is simply because the two of them are so very close on all of the issues and that is just mind boggling.
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