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Friday, May 13, 2016

Bernie Sanders Convention Math

I am by far not a math expert but I read lots of political stories from every state on the primaries.  It does not take a ton of polling data to see where the election is heading.  Bernie Sanders will walk onto the convention floor with more delegates than Hillary Clinton for many reasons.

Reason #1  Western states are very liberal and at the same time look at a candidates background on honesty and trustworthiness.  Bernie blows his opponent out of the water there.

Reason #2  Western states are friendlier to people that seem more genuine.  Bernie blows his opponent out of the water there.

Reason #3  Western states just love Bernie and his message.  His opponent just can't sell what she is offering.  She can not offer an honest reason to not release her Wall Street transcripts and that does not go well with western values.

Reason #4  Bernie Sanders is consistent on his positions over his entire political career.  His opponent has flipped and flopped depending on polling data.

Reason #5 Bernie Sanders is fighting for a living wage at $15 and hour, his opponent thinks that is to high and wants much less.

Reason #6 through #5026 He makes sense and is the first politician willing to just tell the truth.

On to the math.  The delegates from this point are such and this does not include the bullshit super delegates that don't vote till the convention and can change their vote.  This is just simple math based on online opinion and not polls for each state.

As of 5/13 Bernie Sanders has 1433 delegates and Hillary Clinton has 1716 delegates.  Bernie is projected to  win the last 8 of 9 states including California the mega jackpot of delegates.  And if California goes big like Washington did then we have a mega blowout at the convention of delegates.  If 71% vote for Bernie he will get 398 delegates.

Oregon is a very strong state for Bernie Sanders and could be well over 75% voting for him.  That is 55 delegates for Bernie  They vote in the next few weeks and have an open primary.  Oregon will be the momentum into California that could go well over 75% or higher for Bernie Sanders.  You must be registered as a Democrat or Unaffiliated to vote so check your voter registration Californians. The only remaining state that Bernie may have a problem with is New Jersey.  But the tide is changing and Jersey loves a good fight for the underdog.

Bernie will win Kentucky, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota by larger than life margins.  He needs big wins in each state.  Over 60%

Now we have to wonder if New Jersey could be an upset state?  Can Bernie take the state?  I think he can.  The momentum is in Bernie Sanders favor and people vote the momentum.  My projections are that Bernie Sanders will enter the Democrat Convention floor with 46 more delegates than his opponent.  That number will flip hundreds of super delegates to his favor. 

Vote for Bernie Sanders


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